source: The Phoenix Project, Harry Braun, 2003
Hydrogen Production Options Because hydrogen can be made with water and any source of electricity, it is possible to refuel the vehicle at home, as well as the local service station, which will then eliminate the need for the gasoline component of the system. Thus the most important consideration is how the vast new quantities of electricity that will be needed is going to be generated.
In the U.S., the Bush administration is focusing on developing the “dirty” or “toxic” hydrogen options, which include making hydrogen form fossil fuels, extending the life of existing nuclear plants and building a new generation of coal and nuclear plants. Such policies will not solve the more fundamental energy supply problems and the related environmental impact would be devastating. In order to avoid these exponential icebergs, the focus needs to be on manufacturing hydrogen from water with renewable energy resources and technologies, which is what photosynthetic green plants on the earth have been successfully doing on a global scale for over 3.5 billion years.
There are many promising renewable energy technologies under development that could be used for large-scale hydrogen production, including advanced wind systems, photovoltaic cells, ocean thermal energy conversion systems and the use of biological organisms such as blue green algae or the genetic optimization of the hydrogenase enzyme.
If a transition from fossil fuels to renewable hydrogen systems is to be initiated with wartime speed (i.e., by 2010), there is little time for research and development, which can often take many decades, and in the case of nuclear fusion, it may be centuries. Then there are the economic considerations. Although photovoltaic cells are well-developed, if they are used for hydrogen production, their relatively high-cost of electricity would increase vehicular fuel prices by a factor of 20.
Given this economic reduction process, one of the few renewable energy technologies that are economically competitive and technically mature enough to be mass-produced for large-scale hydrogen are state-of-the-art megawatt-scale wind-powered electrolysis systems.
It is important to understand that from a manufacturing
perspective, the power conversion unit of a wind turbine has the same
basic components that are found in automobiles, such as a brake, a gearbox,
an electrical generator, and electronic control system. Approximately
12 million one-megawatt wind turbines could provide 100% of the current
U.S. energy requirements (i.e., 100 quads) in the form of electricity
and hydrogen.
Given that over 17 million vehicles are manufactured in the U.S. annually, and given that wind systems are similar to automotive vehicles from a manufacturing perspective, the 12 million units could be manufactured in less than a year once the tooling is in place.
Moreover, due to the global economic downturn, there is enough available automotive capacity to produce an additional 20 million vehicles annually. Millions of people would be employed in the process as urban air pollution, oil spills, and the need for oil wars and the production of any new radioactive wastes would be ended.
This is not a new idea. In 1923, J.B.S. Haldane, a Scottish scientist delivered a lecture at Cambridge University in which he stated that hydrogen, derived from wind power via electrolysis, liquefied and stored, would be the ideal fuel of the future.
Some 80-years later, Haldane's insightful vision of the future is still the best technology path that has been identified to achieve sustainable prosperity without pollution.
A British Thermal Unit (Btu) is equivalent to 252 calories. Since a gallon of gasoline has about 120,000 Btus, if its production cost is $1.00 a gallon, it is equivalent to $8.33 per million Btus (MMBtus). By contrast, although natural gas prices in the U.S. over the past decade have been in the range of $2.00/MMBtu, given supply problems, current natural gas prices in the U.S. are now in the range of $5.00/MMBtu.
Moreover, natural gas prices are expected to continue increasing as the available reserves are exponentially consumed. As a rule, hydrogen costs from natural gas are about three times the cost of the feedstock, thus $5.00 feedstock gas would result in the hydrogen costing $15.00/MMBtu, which is equivalent to gasoline costing about $1.80 a gallon. See Canadian Hydrogen Production Joint Venture for an example of how Big Oil is embracing H2.
About 60 kWh is needed to manufacture the energy content of a gallon of gasoline in the form of gaseous hydrogen. Assuming electricity costs of 4 cents/kWh, the electricity costs alone would be $20.00/MMBtu. Assuming $300/kW electrolyzer capital cost; a capital recovery factor of 16% based on ROI of 10%; depreciation over 15 years; an inflation factor of 2.7%; a tax rate of 26% and a 40% capacity factor, the cost of hydrogen is increased to about $24.00/MMBtu.
If the hydrogen is liquefied, an additional $4.00/MMBtus would be added, which would make the production cost about $28.00/MMBtu, which is equivalent to gasoline costing $3.40 per equivalent gallon of gasoline.
State-of-the-art wind systems, which have an installed capital cost of approximately $1,000 per kW, and with a 35% capacity factor, such systems are able to generate electricity for approximately 4-cents per kWh. See Cheap Wind Generated Hydrogen and Production of Hydrogen from Wind and Hydropower for current wind information.
However, if the wind systems are mass-produced like automobiles for large-scale hydrogen production, their capital costs will be expected to drop to well below $300/kW, which will reduce the cost of electricity to one or two-cents per kilowatt hour (kWh).
Assuming the wind-powered electrolyzers are mass-produced on a scale to displace fossil and nuclear fuels, the electricity costs would be reduced to about one cent/kWh, and the electrolyzer costs would be reduced to below $100/kW, hydrogen production cost to approximately $10.00/MMBtus.
If the hydrogen is to be liquefied, an additional $3.00/MMBtus would be added, which would make the cost of liquid hydrogen about $13.00/MMBtu, which is equivalent to gasoline costing $1.56 per equivalent gallon of gasoline.
However, additional cost per mile savings occur because hydrogen-fueled internal combustion engines are about 25% more fuel efficient, and they do not generate organic acids and carbon deposits, which contaminate the engine oil and reduce engine component life. These additional factors would reduce the price of liquid hydrogen to about $1.40 per equivalent gallon of gasoline.
Moreover, unlike wind hydrogen systems, which will always be less expensive in the future as more and more engineers refine the technology, gasoline and other hydrocarbon fuels will only get more expensive as the global fossil fuel reserves are exponentially depleted.
See Harry Braun's article in its entirety at The Phoenix Project.